The Most Predictable Thing in the World is Happening
The most difficult conversations in higher education aren’t about unexpected crises—they’re about predictable challenges we’ve watched approaching for years but haven’t adequately prepared for.
Here’s what we’ve known for decades: college costs at private liberal arts institutions have risen dramatically faster than family incomes. Between 2000 and 2020, published tuition and fees increased by over 150%, while median household income grew by just 20%. Liberal arts colleges built budgets on price increases that families increasingly struggled to afford.
And here’s what we’ve known since 2008: the number of high school graduates would decline significantly starting in the mid-2020s led the white high school graduate population which actually started to decline in 2000. Between 2025 and 2035, we are projected to see a 15% decline nationally, with some regions facing drops of 25% or more. This wasn’t speculation—it was demographic certainty.
As college pricing has increased dramatically, the number of high school seniors has been falling. The most predictable thing in the world has happened. What did we expect?
The pressures have intensified. Presidents have always juggled competing priorities with limited resources, but now more balls are in the air. Boards have always wanted stability and positive news, but now that is hard to provide. Faculty having enjoyed tenure now worry about jobs and programs they’ve devoted careers to building. Everyone hopes that working harder will be enough. But hope isn’t strategy, and working harder in a fast changing landscape doesn’t produce better outcomes.
The institutions that will navigate these challenges successfully aren’t necessarily those with the most resources—they’re those willing to have honest conversations and make strategic decisions now, while they still have options. Cash on hand has taken on a new importance.
Liberal arts colleges possess distinctive strengths that matter enormously: close faculty-student relationships, transformative residential experiences, broad intellectual development, and genuine preparation for lives of meaning. These aren’t obsolete values—they’re increasingly precious in a world of narrow credentialing and transactional education.
But preserving these strengths requires making them accessible, visible, and financially sustainable. It requires honest assessment of where we’re truly excellent versus where we’re merely adequate. It requires courage to stop doing things that no longer serve mission or market.
What should private colleges do now?
Invest in understanding your market position. Rigorous research into who values what you offer and at what price becomes the foundation for everything else. Prospective students will tell you what they need if you ask the right questions. Do some form of this annually with plans to do it at large scale every three to five years.
Align your functional areas. Too often, college leaders think of enrollment is just admission and financial aid. It isn’t that simple. Those areas can represent the institution and help students find ways to pay, but the rest of the institution must be ready, willing, and able to provide active support for enrollment outcomes.
Invest in sophisticated enrollment management. Colleges that invest in talented people, effective technology, and data-informed strategy can see results even in difficult markets. Consistent, strategic enrollment investments can generate returns that across the board budget cuts never will.
Have honest institutional conversations. When boards, presidents, cabinets, and faculty come together around real data with genuine openness to change, remarkable things become possible. These conversations create the alignment that makes everything else work.
Exercise bold leadership. Bold leadership doesn’t mean reckless change—it means making timely strategic decisions while you still have choices, not after crisis, institutional lethargy, or aversion to change has eliminated your options. It is time to move. The market and recruitment cycle will not wait for you.
Be strategic about program portfolio. This isn’t about abandoning liberal arts education—it’s about offering the strongest possible liberal arts education in areas where you’re genuinely excellent and where students see value.
Explore new markets authentically. Many colleges are finding sustainable paths by thoughtfully serving working adults, transfer students, or developing online programs that extend their residential mission. The key is authenticity.
How do you know when to act? If for the last three years your net revenue per student has declined, or if you’re missing headcount targets and making annual cuts that chip away at quality, the market is telling you something. Incremental adjustments and holding institutional breath won’t be enough. Recognizing these signals while you still have resources and options is itself a strategic advantage.
The world needs what liberal arts colleges offer: critical thinking, the ability to navigate complexity, integration of knowledge across disciplines, development of the whole person. These aren’t yesterday’s values—they’re exactly what today and tomorrow require.
The most predictable thing in the world is happening. But the outcome isn’t predetermined. Liberal arts colleges that act with clarity, courage, and strategic vision can thrive. The question is: will we make the decisions this moment requires while we still have resources and choices, or will we wait until crisis or institutional malaise makes those decisions for us?
The future of liberal arts education isn’t something that happens to us. It’s something we create—together, with honesty, courage, urgency, and clarity.
J. Carey Thompson is the founder of CVET Enrollment Strategies, bringing 35+ years of senior enrollment leadership experience across admission, financial aid, career services, communications, athletics, and institutional research. CVET partners with private colleges and universities to develop comprehensive, evidence-based enrollment strategies. Learn more at cvetconsulting.com.