The Most Predictable Thing in the World is Happening

The Most Predictable Thing in the World is Happening

The most difficult conversations in higher education aren’t about unexpected crises—they’re about predictable challenges we’ve watched approaching for years but haven’t adequately prepared for.

Here’s what we’ve known for decades: college costs at private liberal arts institutions have risen dramatically faster than family incomes. Between 2000 and 2020, published tuition and fees increased by over 150%, while median household income grew by just 20%. Liberal arts colleges built budgets on price increases that families increasingly struggled to afford.

And here’s what we’ve known since 2008: the number of high school graduates would decline significantly starting in the mid-2020s beginning the white high school graduate population started to decline in 2000.  Between 2025 and 2035, we’re projected to see a 15% decline nationally, with some regions facing drops of 25% or more. For liberal arts colleges that draw from traditional-age, residential student populations, this wasn’t speculation—it was demographic certainty.

The most predictable thing in the world is happening: enrollment pressure is intensifying at liberal arts colleges across the country. Yet many institutions are responding with surprise rather than readiness.

The pressures are real. Presidents juggle competing priorities with limited resources. Boards want stability and positive news. Faculty worry about jobs and programs they’ve devoted careers to building. Everyone hopes that working harder will be enough. But hope isn’t strategy, and working harder at the wrong things doesn’t produce better outcomes.

The institutions that will navigate these challenges successfully aren’t necessarily those with the most resources—they’re those willing to have honest conversations and make strategic decisions now, while they still have options.

Liberal arts colleges possess distinctive strengths that matter enormously: close faculty-student relationships, transformative residential experiences, broad intellectual development, and genuine preparation for lives of meaning. These aren’t obsolete values—they’re increasingly precious in a world of narrow credentialing and transactional education.

But preserving these strengths requires making them accessible, visible, and financially sustainable. It requires honest assessment of where we’re truly excellent versus where we’re merely adequate. It requires courage to stop doing things that no longer serve mission or market.

What should liberal arts colleges do now?

Invest in understanding your market position. Rigorous research into who values what you offer and at what price becomes the foundation for everything else. Prospective students will tell you what they need if you ask the right questions.

Invest in sophisticated recruitment. Colleges that invest in talented people, effective technology, and data-driven strategy are seeing results even in difficult markets. Strategic enrollment investment generates returns that budget cuts never will.

Have honest institutional conversations. When boards, cabinets, and faculty come together around real data with genuine openness to change, remarkable things become possible. These conversations create the alignment that makes everything else work.

Exercise bold leadership. Bold leadership doesn’t mean reckless change—it means making strategic decisions while you still have choices, not after crisis has eliminated your options.

Be strategic about program portfolio. This isn’t about abandoning liberal arts education—it’s about offering the strongest possible liberal arts education in areas where you’re genuinely excellent and where students see value.

Explore new markets authentically. Many colleges are finding sustainable paths by thoughtfully serving working adults, transfer students, or developing online programs that extend their residential mission. The key is authenticity.

How do you know when to act? If for the last three years your net revenue per student has declined, if you’re missing headcount targets and making annual cuts that chip away at quality—incremental adjustments won’t be enough. But recognizing these signals while you still have resources and options is itself a strategic advantage.

The liberal arts colleges that will flourish won’t be those that avoided these challenges—no one can. They’ll be those that faced reality clearly, made decisions strategically, and invested in what matters most: academic excellence, genuine student experience, and mission-driven impact.

The world needs what liberal arts colleges offer: critical thinking, the ability to navigate complexity, integration of knowledge across disciplines, development of the whole person. These aren’t yesterday’s values—they’re exactly what tomorrow requires.

The most predictable thing in the world is happening. But the outcome isn’t predetermined. Liberal arts colleges that act with clarity, courage, and strategic vision can absolutely thrive. The question is: will we make the decisions this moment requires while we still have resources and choices, or will we wait until crisis makes those decisions for us?

The future of liberal arts education isn’t something that happens to us. It’s something we create—together, with honesty, courage, and hope.